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The US presidential election, geopolitical tensions, advancements in artificial intelligence, and the unwinding of Japanese carry trades are poised to significantly impact financial markets, underscoring the necessity for a diversified portfolio. As US growth moderates and European growth accelerates, the balance of economic risks is shifting, with core bonds expected to provide stability amid easing inflation. The broadening of US corporate earnings may lead to a regional rotation in equity markets, highlighting the importance of preparedness for ongoing volatility.
Michigan's Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading is expected to rise to 70.9 in October, while key speeches from Fed officials are anticipated. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.092%. European markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down slightly, as investors await U.S. bank earnings and updates on China's fiscal stimulus. The U.K. economy showed growth in August, while Germany's inflation eased to 1.6%. Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising on investor adjustments ahead of a holiday, while China's Shanghai Composite fell amid caution over potential stimulus measures. U.S. futures are down as the market awaits crucial PPI data and bank earnings.
The Bank of Japan may continue its rate hikes despite recent statements from the Prime Minister suggesting otherwise. With inflation at 3% and significant wage increases anticipated, the economic fundamentals support further normalization of monetary policy, potentially stabilizing the yen.
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US stock markets hit record highs following the Federal Reserve's support for a significant interest rate cut, while optimism in Australia surged due to China's fiscal policy measures. Key economic indicators showed mixed results, with rising jobless claims and fluctuating inflation rates. Upcoming data releases include employment figures in Australia and retail sales in the US.
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Quantedge Global Fund led a rebound in commodity trading advisors and trend-following hedge funds in September, gaining over 8% and reaching a 29.36% year-to-date increase. Other notable performers included Mulvaney Global Markets Fund, up 3.1%, and DUNN World Monetary & Agriculture Program, which rose 1.03%. However, the Tulip Trend Fund faced a setback, dropping 2.3% for the month.
VPBank and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) signed a $150 million credit line on October 9 to finance green projects in Vietnam, focusing on renewable energy and power grid development to support the country's net-zero emissions goal by 2050. This agreement highlights the strengthening economic ties between Vietnam and Japan, with JBIC's support for environmental initiatives aligning with Vietnam's energy transition plans. Additionally, JBIC will provide a $36 million loan for an office building development in Ho Chi Minh City.
GBP/USD found support at the 55-day SMA of $1.3066, with the $1.30 mark being crucial for the medium-term trend. If this level fails, the September low of $1.3002 and the 200-day SMA at $1.2784 could come into play. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY is trading below the ¥162.89-to-¥164.24 resistance area, while USD/JPY aims for key resistance levels.
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VPBank and LOTTE C&F Vietnam have signed a cooperation agreement to enhance financial solutions for LOTTE customers, focusing on co-branded card products and Buy Now Pay Later services. This partnership aims to leverage digital financial solutions and improve customer experience while expanding VPBank's market presence among FDI clients in Vietnam.
Since 1900, equities have consistently outperformed bonds, bills, and inflation across 21 markets, with the US market dominating global equity value at 60.5%. Long-run asset returns are primarily generated during easing cycles, with significant premiums observed in investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds. The re-emergence of inflation necessitates a historical perspective to navigate the current investment landscape effectively.
GBP/USD has slipped to $1.3070, nearing key support at the 55-day SMA and September low, with a potential fall targeting the 200-day SMA at $1.2779. Meanwhile, USD/JPY approaches resistance at ¥149.40, while EUR/JPY faces resistance as the yen weakens amid calls for caution from Japanese officials regarding further rate hikes.
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